By Clonie Gowen
It is very difficult to calculate the exact probability of complete a draw when you sit at a poker table. Unless you are a genius with a gift for mathematics as Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do so. This leaves two options for the rest of us: the first option is to sit at home with a calculator and calculate the odds of all possible combinations of prints, and then to remember. In this way, no matter the situation, you will know the probabilities to complete a hand. But for those of us with a memory that is not perfect, there is a simpler method. This is a simple trick to estimate these probabilities.
The first thing you have to do is to calculate your number of "outs". A "outs" is a card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of remaining cards in the package which would help you to complete your hand. For example: suppose you have Ac - 8 c and the flop falls Qh 9 c 4 c. You have a flush draw. There are 13 clubs in a deck of cards and you have already seen four - both in your hands and the two on the table. Been there 9 non revealed clovers and remains two upcoming cards.
The trick to calculate your chances of completing your flush is to multiply your number of "outs" by the number of chances to hit. In this case, it will be nine multiplied by 2 if there is a future map (18%) and by 4 If there are 2 upcoming maps (turn and river) in which case, this will give an approximate percentage of 36% to supplement its flush (the exact percentage is 34.97%.). Now, imagine that on this same flop you held Jd Th. In this situation, you have a straight draw open (for a total of eight "outs". Eight "outs" with two upcoming cards gives you a total of 16 "outs". Multiply this number by two and you have about 32% chance to complete your straight (31.46% exactly).
One thing it is important to keep in mind is that the percentage that you find with this method, will not give you the percentage of time where you win the hand, but only the percentage of the time you complete your hand. You can complete your draw and still lose the hand. In the first example, you can touch the Qc on the river which will double the Lady and could give a full to another player. In the second example, a Kc or a 8 c could give a flush to your opponents. Know approximately the percentage of chances you have to complete a hand is a good start in the road that will lead you to be a better player poker.
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